San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings

League: NBA | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 05:05 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 San Antonio Spurs / Spread / -18.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation cover rate of 58.4% exceeds implied probability; Kings crippled by outs (Sabonis, LaVine, Hunter, Cardwell), Spurs 8-2 last 10 with +11 avg margin.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 230.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulated avg total 224.0 falls short of line, public/money lean Under (55%/59%); Spurs allow 108.6 PPG recently, Kings offense depleted by injuries.
💰 Best Bet #3 San Antonio Spurs / Moneyline / -1800 / 93% / 93.2% sim win probability aligns with heavy public (91%) and money (96%) on Spurs amid 7-game win streak.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 93.2% |
| Win % for Sacramento Kings | 6.8% |
| Spread Cover % for San Antonio Spurs | 58.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42.1% / Under: 57.9% |
| Average Total Points | 224.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [11.2, 48.7] |

🏈 Matchup: San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings

💸 Public Bets
Spurs 91% / Kings 9% (ML); Spread 48% / 52%

💰 Money Distribution
Spurs 96% / Kings 4% (ML); Spread 43% / 57%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -18 / -18.5; consistent across books

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Spurs -18.5 / Simulation edge (58% cover vs -110 implied 52%) + Kings injuries outweigh slight money on +18

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to lack of current prop odds verification.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Spurs ML (91%) aligning with money (96%), supporting follow over fade despite slight spread money on Kings; math confirms via sim edges. Kings decimated by key outs (Sabonis, LaVine out), while Spurs roll on 7-win streak allowing 108.6 PPG. Game projects low-scoring with avg total 224 vs 230.5 line, favoring Under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Spurs — sim dominance (93% win) and injury disparity override minor spread divergence for highest EV.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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