NBA

Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder

League: NBA | Game Time: 7:30 PM ET • 6:30 PM CT • 5:30 PM MT • 4:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-23 07:07 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Toronto Raptors / +1.5 / -106 at DraftKings / 58% / Toronto’s recent 6-4 form with 2-win streak and prior win over OKC, combined with OKC injuries to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Caruso, creates strong cover probability despite public lean

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 217.5 at -112 / 55% / Toronto’s last 10 games average 221.7 total points with multiple high-scoring outputs like 254 and 250, outpacing the low line amid favorable pace

💰 Best Bet #3 Toronto Raptors / Moneyline / +112 at FanDuel / 52% / Positive EV as underdog with home advantage, hot streak, and OKC depleted by key absences offsetting slight market favoritism

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toronto Raptors | 52% |
| Win % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Toronto Raptors (+1.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Points | 219 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 14] |

🏀 Matchup: Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder
💸 Public Bets
[Toronto 45% / OKC 55%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Toronto 40% / OKC 60%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
[Stable across books with limited action on 3 books; no significant RLM]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.5% on Toronto +1.5; sim convergence and OKC injuries outweigh public/money on favorite]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Gradey Dick / Over 14.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Toronto rookie averaging efficient scoring in recent starts (15+ PPG last 5), favorable usage vs OKC depleted backcourt

Player Prop #2: Chet Holmgren / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -112 / 68% / OKC big man dominating boards (10+ RPG recently), Toronto weak interior defense allowing high rebound rates

Player Prop #3: Ochai Agbaji / Over 4.5 Rebounds + Assists / -108 / 70% / Multi-category prop hits 75% in last 8 games with increased role, matchup boosts vs OKC injuries

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money both moderately favor OKC aligning with the favorite, but sharp value emerges on Toronto due to OKC’s multiple key injuries (Shai, Williams, Caruso out as of recent reports) and Toronto’s superior recent form (6-4, +2.3 margin). Fading the public is optimal as sims show edge on home dog cover. Overall game projects moderate-to-high scoring (avg 219) driven by Toronto’s offensive trends but capped by potential defensive focus late season.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on OKC — Toronto holds the best mathematical probability with positive EV across spread and ML.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.