NCAAB

South Alabama vs Texas State

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 09:36 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Texas State Bobcats / Spread / -1.5 at -105 / 55% / Contrarian to 55% public bets on South Alabama +1.5 with money split favoring dog but model projects 52% cover rate
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 149.5 at -110 / 52% / Balanced public lean to over (53%) but simulation avg total aligns near line with defensive matchup factors
💰 Best Bet #3 Texas State Bobcats / Moneyline / -145 / 58% / Highest EV on favorite amid heavy public action (67% bets) on home dog ML

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Alabama Jaguars | 43% |
| Win % for Texas State Bobcats | 57% |
| Spread Cover % for Texas State Bobcats | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 50% / Under: 50% |
| Average Total Points | 149 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-27.5, 24.5] |

🏈 Matchup: South Alabama Jaguars vs Texas State Bobcats

💸 Public Bets
55% / 45%

💰 Money Distribution
60% / 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable—no significant shifts observed in provided data

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Texas State -1.5; public overreaction to home dog creates value despite aligned money

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans heavily toward the South Alabama underdog (55% spread bets, 67% ML bets), with money distribution aligned but not overwhelming. Sharp models favor fading this public bias on Texas State given consensus lines and simulation outcomes. Overall game scoring outlook projects around the total line, with slight under lean from pace-neutral matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on South Alabama — Texas State offers the best mathematical probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.