NCAAB
Georgia State vs 
Georgia Southern
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 09:45 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Georgia St Panthers / -2.5 / -2.5 at +112 / 58% confidence
Home favorite shows value at plus-money pricing despite public leaning dog; money split favors away but line holds firm with positive EV from implied probs (45%) vs model edge.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 131.5 at -114 / 55% confidence
Combined offensive efficiencies project below line in low-possession Sun Belt tilt; public over 56% creates mild fade opportunity with defensive metrics converging under.
💰 Best Bet #3 Georgia St Panthers / Moneyline / -215 / 65% confidence
Consensus favorite aligns with home-court edge and market pricing; sharp resistance minimal as money distribution trails public slightly.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Georgia St Panthers | 62% |
| Win % for Georgia Southern Eagles | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Georgia St Panthers | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 132.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-11.8, 18.4] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
💸 Public Bets
[Georgia St Panthers 45% / Georgia Southern Eagles 55%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Georgia St Panthers 40% / Georgia Southern Eagles 60%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books from -1.5 to -2.5; no significant RLM observed in provided data.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Georgia St -2.5 (model cover 56% vs 45% implied at +112 odds); mild +1.8% under edge from projected total vs public over bias.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment favors the underdog Georgia Southern at 55% bets but money at 60% suggests some sharp interest; however, plus-money pricing on home spread creates superior EV without strong contrarian signals like heavy public (>70%) or RLM. Defensive paces project a controlled, sub-132 point game limiting over value. Follow math over public lean with home side.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Georgia Southern — Georgia St Panthers -2.5 offers the best mathematical probability of winning.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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