NCAAB

Tennessee Tech vs Siu Edwardsville

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:30 PM ET • 7:30 PM CT • 6:30 PM MT • 5:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 10:08 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles / -4.5 / -110 / 62% / Public 57% bets/62% money on Cougars signals sharp resistance potential; home edge in low-volume matchup supports cover

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 126.5 at -110 / 58% / OVC games trend low-scoring with totals around 126; both teams implied defensive strengths align for under

💰 Best Bet #3 Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles / Moneyline / -280 / 70% / Consensus lines imply 74% win prob, model converges at 72% factoring home advantage

Simulation Results (10,000 Monte Carlo Runs)
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles | 72.0% |
| Win % for SIU-Edwardsville Cougars | 27.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (-4.5) | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 126.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18.2, 25.1] |

🏈 Matchup: Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs SIU-Edwardsville Cougars on February 20, 2026

💸 Public Bets
[Tennessee Tech 43% / SIU-Edwardsville 57%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Tennessee Tech 38% / SIU-Edwardsville 62%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Spread steady at -4.5 across consensus books despite public on dog]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on TTU -4.5; implied prob undervalues home win/cover based on market consensus and simulation]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distribution both heavily favor the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars as the underdog (57%/62%), creating alignment but potential overvaluation in a low-volume mid-major matchup. Model simulation and home-field factors support fading the public toward Tennessee Tech, with positive EV on the spread and moneyline. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring given the 126.5 total and defensive matchup implications.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on SIU-Edwardsville Cougars — model probability favors Tennessee Tech dominance.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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