NCAAB

North Texas vs Tulane

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 10:18 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 North Texas / Spread / -6.5 at -108 / 65% / Recent close defensive wins for North Texas (avg total 128) project model cover rate of 55% exceeding implied odds amid divergent betting action with money on dog.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 68% / North Texas recent games consistently low-scoring (120-136 totals), tempo trends, and defensive metrics favor under despite even public split.
💰 Best Bet #3 North Texas / Moneyline / -460 / 75% / Heavy public/sharp alignment on home favorite aligns with simulation win probability and home advantage in conference play.

Simulation Results (10,000 Monte Carlo Runs)
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for North Texas Mean Green | 75.2% |
| Win % for Tulane Green Wave | 24.8% |
| Spread Cover % for North Texas | 55.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45.2% / Under: 54.8% |
| Average Total Points | 142.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18.2, 30.1] |

🏀 Matchup: North Texas Mean Green vs Tulane Green Wave

💸 Public Bets
North Texas 46% / Tulane 54%

💰 Money Distribution
North Texas 41% / Tulane 59%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable across books (-6.5 FanDuel/Caesars tier1, -7.5 DraftKings); no clear reverse line movement despite money on Tulane spread.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on North Texas -6.5 (simulation 55% cover vs ~52% implied); +2.8% on Under 145.5 (54.8% model prob vs 52% implied) based on recent form and efficiency convergence.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Tulane on spread (54%) with heavier money (59%), creating divergence from heavy home ML backing (78%/83%), but North Texas defensive trends in recent low-total games support fading the dog spread. Sharp resistance implied by money split, yet model favors home cover and under. Overall low-scoring outlook with North Texas pace and opponent weaknesses projecting below total line.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Tulane — model edges align with North Texas spread despite betting splits.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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