NCAAB

Portland State vs Idaho

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 10:21 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Portland St Vikings / Spread / -13.5 at -115 / 62% / Model simulates 15-point average margin amid strong home efficiency edge and Idaho’s poor road form; public/money consensus aligns without RLM concerns.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 145.5 at -115 / 58% / Both teams project subpar offensive outputs (Portland D rating elite, Idaho turnover-prone), recent trends favor low-scoring Big Sky grinders.

💰 Best Bet #3 Portland St Vikings / Moneyline / -2500 / 95% / Overwhelming dominance projected (92%+ win probability), heavy favorite status confirmed by market.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Portland St Vikings | 92.0% |
| Win % for Idaho Vandals | 8.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Portland St Vikings | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 142.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-11.4, 41.4] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

🏀 Matchup: Portland St Vikings vs Idaho Vandals on 2026-02-20

💸 Public Bets
Portland St 54% / Idaho 46%

💰 Money Distribution
Portland St 59% / Idaho 41%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable around -13 to -14.5; minor variance across books with no clear steam

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Portland St spread; model’s 15-pt projection exceeds line after adj for tempo/defense

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment (54% bets) aligns with sharp money (59%) on home favorite Portland State, supporting follow over fade as EV confirms value without public overkill (>70%). No RLM evident, injuries unclear but no major flags. Game tilts low-scoring with defensive metrics projecting under 145.5 total.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Portland St — highest probability edge on spread coverage.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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