NCAAB

Hawaii vs Cal Poly

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 11:59 PM ET • 10:59 PM CT • 9:59 PM MT • 8:59 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 10:31 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Hawai’i / Spread / -10.5 at -110 / 53% / Simulation cover probability 51.1% edges implied line; divergent public bets (54% on dog) with money 59% on Cal Poly suggests contrarian value on home cover]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 161.5 at -110 / 57% / Sim projects avg total 159.1 (Under 55.7%); heavy public/money alignment on Under (59%/65%) confirms low-scoring outlook despite high line]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Hawai’i / Moneyline / -670 / 75% / Sim win probability 72% holds value vs vig-adjusted implied ~85%; overwhelming public alignment (89%/94%) on home despite low odds]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors | 72.0% |
| Win % for Cal Poly Mustangs | 28.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Hawai’i | 51.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44.3% / Under: 55.7% |
| Average Total Points | 159.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-24, 45] |

💸 Public Bets
Hawai’i 46% / Cal Poly 54% (spread)

💰 Money Distribution
Hawai’i 41% / Cal Poly 59% (spread)

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
No significant data available

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Hawai’i spread cover (sim 51.1% vs implied 52.4%); +5.7% EV on Under (sim 55.7% exceeds 50% threshold with public convergence); ML Hawai’i marginal due to sim under implied prob

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Hawai’i ML (89%) with money alignment (94%), but spread shows divergence with bets (54%) and money (59%) on Cal Poly +10.5, suggesting sharp action on dog cover—yet simulation converges on slight Hawai’i cover edge and Under value. Overall game projects low-scoring (avg 159 pts) due to defensive efficiencies modeled and total splits. Follow Under strongly; fade spread public on dog for math-backed play.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Cal Poly — simulation and EV favor Hawai’i spread despite betting splits.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.