NCAAB

Fairfield vs Sacred Heart

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-20 11:10 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Fairfield Stags / Spread / -4.5 at -115 / 54% / Simulation shows 52% cover rate aligning with slight public (52%) and money (57%) on home spread; home advantage and favorite status support edge.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 159.5 at -110 / 53% / Public bets (44% over) and money (40% over) favor under, matching simulation’s 51% under probability in moderate-paced matchup.

💰 Best Bet #3 Fairfield Stags / Moneyline / -210 / 67% / Model win probability of 66% close to implied odds, backed by heavy public (74%) and money (79%) consensus on home favorite.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Fairfield Stags | 66.0% |
| Win % for Sacred Heart Pioneers | 34.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Fairfield Stags | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.0% / Under: 51.0% |
| Average Total Points | 159.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18.6, 28.6] |

🏀 Matchup: Fairfield Stags vs Sacred Heart Pioneers

💸 Public Bets
Fairfield 52% / Sacred Heart 48% (spread)

💰 Money Distribution
Fairfield 57% / Sacred Heart 43% (spread)

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Lines stable around -4.5 to -5 across books

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2% on Fairfield spread; sim probabilities converge with market and public alignment for positive EV without contrarian signals.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment on spread and moneyline aligns closely with sharp indicators (higher money % on home), supporting a follow rather than fade. No reverse line movement or major disparities noted, with consensus favoring Fairfield. Game scoring outlook leans moderate-to-low based on under-favored total splits and simulation average near the line.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Fairfield Stags — strongest mathematical probability from aligned metrics and simulation.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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