NCAAB

Iona vs St. Peters

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-20 11:13 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Iona Gaels / -1.5 / -105 / 58% / Home edge aligns with 56% public bets and 61% money on Iona, model projects 52% cover probability exceeding implied line.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 139.5 / -110 / 52% / Even public split but sim shows slight under lean (50.2%) in close MAAC matchup with defensive tendencies implied by line stability.
💰 Best Bet #3 Iona Gaels / Moneyline / -122 / 55% / Model win probability 54% supports value on slight home favorite amid aligned market action.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Iona Gaels | 54.2% |
| Win % for Saint Peter’s Peacocks | 45.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Iona Gaels | 51.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.8% / Under: 50.2% |
| Average Total Points | 139.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-22.1, 25.7] |

🏀 Matchup: Iona Gaels vs Saint Peter’s Peacocks

💸 Public Bets
[Iona 56% / Saint Peter’s 44%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Iona 61% / Saint Peter’s 39%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable lines across books from -1 to -1.5, no significant shifts despite moderate public action]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Iona spread; model cover rate exceeds vig-adjusted implied probability with supporting money steam]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment on Iona spread aligns closely with sharp money indicators (61% vs 56% bets), confirming follow-the-market optimal rather than contrarian fade. No reverse line movement or major injuries alter the outlook, with sim supporting narrow home edge. Overall game scoring projects moderate around 139 total, favoring slight under amid even public total split but model defensive tilt.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Iona Gaels — model and market convergence yields highest EV probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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