NCAAB

Manhattan vs Marist

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-20 11:16 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Manhattan Jaspers / +5 / -115 / 58% / Money 56% on dog with even public bets and sim cover rate 55.1% exceeds implied 52.4%]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 55% / Public 55% bets/59% money on under aligns with sim 52.8% probability and avg total 141.5]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Manhattan Jaspers / Moneyline / +182 / 42% / Model 41.1% win prob vs implied ~35% offers value fading 71% public/76% money on heavy favorite]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Manhattan Jaspers | 41.1% |
| Win % for Marist Red Foxes | 56.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Manhattan Jaspers (+5) | 55.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47.2% / Under: 52.8% |
| Average Total Points | 141.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Marist) | [-28, 36] |

Manhattan Jaspers vs Marist Red Foxes

💸 Public Bets
[51% Manhattan / 49% Marist] (spread)

💰 Money Distribution
[56% Manhattan / 44% Marist] (spread)

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable across books from +5 (-115) to -4.5 equivalent]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.5% on Manhattan +5; model cover 55.1% vs -115 implied 52.4% with money convergence]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public betting nearly even on spread but heavily favors Marist ML (71%), while money tilts toward Manhattan dog on spread (56%), signaling potential sharp action amid stable lines. Simulation from 10,000 runs projects Manhattan covering +5 at 55.1% with average total 141.5 supporting under edge in a matchup leaning low-scoring based on projected offensive/defensive efficiencies. Fade public ML consensus optimal as model identifies value on underdog sides without contradicting money flow.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Marist — Manhattan +5 holds strongest EV.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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