NCAAB

Merrimack Warriors vs Siena

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-20 11:21 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Merrimack Warriors / Spread / -3.5 at -115 / 56% / Recent form shows +12.5 avg margin, home edge, sim cover 54% aligns with slight money on home

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 132.5 at -110 / 65% / Avg recent total 138.5 exceeds line, sim avg 139 with 66% over prob despite public under lean

💰 Best Bet #3 Merrimack Warriors / Moneyline / -175 / 62% / Public 69% bets/74% money on home converges with 62% sim win prob and strong recent wins

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Merrimack Warriors | 62.2% |
| Win % for Siena Saints | 35.6% |
| Spread Cover % for Merrimack Warriors | 54.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 65.8% / Under: 34.2% |
| Average Total Points | 139.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-25, 35] |

🏀 Matchup: Merrimack Warriors vs Siena Saints on 2026-02-21

💸 Public Bets
[Merrimack 50% / Siena 50%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Merrimack 55% / Siena 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Lines stable across books at -3.5 spread and 132.5 total]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[Spread +1% EV (model 54% vs implied 53%); Over +12% EV (66% vs 52%); ML neutral]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets even on spread but money tilts to Merrimack, aligning with recent dominant form (+12.5 margin) and simulation edges. Sharp action implied via money % supports home side despite even bets. Overall game projects higher scoring (avg 139 pts) based on Merrimack offense and matchup pace.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Merrimack — sim win/cover probabilities and form justify alignment.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.