NCAAB

Houston vs Arizona

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 3:00 PM ET • 2:00 PM CT • 1:00 PM MT • 12:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 09:09 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Houston Cougars / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Houston’s superior sim cover rate (54%) aligns with money steam (57%) on home side, home-field edge undervalued vs public split

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 142.5 at -110 / 55% / Avg sim total 141.6 trails line, under hits 52% in projection with defensive metrics favoring lower scoring

💰 Best Bet #3 Houston Cougars / Moneyline at -255 / 68% / Dominant 68% win prob crushes implied odds (~72% breakeven), backed by consensus action

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Houston Cougars | 68% |
| Win % for Arizona Wildcats | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Houston Cougars | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, 20.1] |

🏀 Matchup: Houston Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats on 2026-02-21

💸 Public Bets
[Houston 52% / Arizona 48%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Houston 57% / Arizona 43%]

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable per available data

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Houston -5.5 — Implied prob from odds undervalues home cover likelihood given public/money consensus and sim results

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and sharp money both favor Houston, creating strong alignment without RLM signals, supporting a follow on the favorite. Defensive efficiencies point to a controlled pace, favoring the under as sim totals converge below the line. No major injuries alter the outlook, with Houston’s home dominance driving positive EV.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Houston Cougars — Highest mathematical probability per sim win/cover rates and market consensus.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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