NCAAB

Arkansas vs Missouri

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 4:00 PM ET • 3:00 PM CT • 2:00 PM MT • 1:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 10:05 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Arkansas Razorbacks / Spread / -9.5 at -115 / 55% / Simulation cover at 51% edges breakeven with divergent money (56% on Missouri) signaling value on home favorite amid strong win probability.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 160.5 at -110 / 54% / Over/Under probs show 51% Under likelihood aligning with 61% money on Under and average total of 161.5 near line.
💰 Best Bet #3 Arkansas Razorbacks / Moneyline / -535 / 82% / Dominant 82% simulated win rate converges with 89% public bets despite heavy favorite pricing.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arkansas Razorbacks | 82% |
| Win % for Missouri Tigers | 18% |
| Spread Cover % for Arkansas Razorbacks | 51% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 161.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6.2, 27.1] |

🏀 Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Missouri Tigers

💸 Public Bets
[47% / 53%]

💰 Money Distribution
[42% / 58%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -10.5 across sources

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Under 161.5; money disparity (59% under) with total prob convergence supports positive EV without public overreaction.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public betting splits show slight lean toward Missouri on spread (53%) but heavy on Arkansas moneyline (89%), creating divergence with money favoring the underdog (58%). Sharp indicators via money % suggest resistance to public fade, aligning with simulation’s Arkansas favoritism and modest spread cover probability. Game projects as moderate-scoring with Under edge from defensive efficiencies and total distribution.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Missouri — Arkansas holds mathematical edge per sim win % and EV convergence.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.