NCAAB
South Carolina vs 
Mississippi St.
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 1:00 PM ET • 12:00 PM CT • 11:00 AM MT • 10:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 07:39 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Mississippi St Bulldogs / +1.5 / -110 / 52% / Simulation shows even spread coverage despite public leaning home; money slightly favors SC but line stable signals value on dog.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 151.5 at -110 / 53% / Public and money heavily on under (56%/60%); sim avg total aligns with low-scoring expectation from defensive metrics convergence.
💰 Best Bet #3 South Carolina Gamecocks / Moneyline / -132 / 55% / Home edge and sim win prob (55%) edges implied odds amid aligned market action.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Carolina Gamecocks | 55.2% |
| Win % for Mississippi St Bulldogs | 44.8% |
| Spread Cover % for South Carolina Gamecocks | 50.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.7% / Under: 50.3% |
| Average Total Points | 151.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-22.1, 24.5] |
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🏀 Matchup: South Carolina Gamecocks vs Mississippi St Bulldogs on February 21
💸 Public Bets
[South Carolina 53% / Mississippi St 47%]
💰 Money Distribution
[South Carolina 58% / Mississippi St 42%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
[Stable at -1.5; no significant shifts observed]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+1.5% on MSU +1.5; sim coverage nears breakeven while public overreaction to home fave creates value]
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distribution align on slight South Carolina favoritism, but simulation indicates a tighter contest with even spread probability, supporting a fade on the home side. Sharp money concentration on SC does not outweigh model edges from defensive efficiencies and recent form gaps. Overall game projects as moderate-scoring, favoring the under amid under money dominance and pace adjustments.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on South Carolina — mathematical probability favors value on MSU spread in this closely matched SEC tilt.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.