NCAAB

Virginia vs Miami (FL)

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 08:07 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Virginia Cavaliers / -8.5 / -115 / 58% / Virginia’s elite defense and home advantage converge with sim model projecting 55%+ cover rate vs implied odds, sharp money resistance on dog despite slight public lean away.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 55% / Public/money heavily skewed under (57%/61%), low recent totals implied by line stability and defensive metrics favoring sub-146 avg score.

💰 Best Bet #3 Virginia Cavaliers / Moneyline / -420 / 78% / Model win prob 78% aligns with heavy public/sharp consensus on home fave despite no RLM data.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Virginia Cavaliers | 78.0% |
| Win % for Miami Hurricanes | 21.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Virginia Cavaliers | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 145.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 27.1] |

🏈 Matchup: Virginia Cavaliers vs Miami Hurricanes on 2026-02-21
💸 Public Bets
[Virginia 48% / Miami 52%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Virginia 43% / Miami 57%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]
📉 Line Movement
[N/A – stable consensus at -8.5 across books]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Virginia -8.5; model cover exceeds implied 53.5% breakeven amid home dominance]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets split near-even on spread but money favors Miami +8.5 (57%), signaling potential sharp action on dog, yet Virginia ML sees aligned heavy public/sharp support (87%/92%) with model backing home win at 78%. Fade slight public spread lean as EV favors favorite cover; game projects low-scoring under with defensive edges and public under skew. Overall outlook leans defensive grind under total.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Miami spread — Virginia holds mathematical edge per sim and home metrics.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.