Florida Gulf Coast vs Central Arkansas

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 08:38 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +1.5 at -105 55% Confidence Recent home wins in low-margin games (72-65, 68-65) suggest value on home dog covering tight spread against public-heavy favorite.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 151.5 at -110 62% Confidence FGCU recent home totals average 137 with strong defensive showings (65, 65 allowed); matchup projects low-scoring affair below line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Central Arkansas Bears ML at -130 54% Confidence Slight edge as road favorite with public and money consensus (59% bets/64% handle on spread side).

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | 46% |
| Win % for Central Arkansas Bears | 54% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (+1.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 142 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19, 18] |

🏀 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs Central Arkansas Bears

💸 Public Bets
Florida Gulf Coast 41% / Central Arkansas 59%

💰 Money Distribution
Florida Gulf Coast 36% / Central Arkansas 64%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
N/A

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Under 151.5; recent FGCU home games average 137 total points vs. high line, simulation avg 142 supports 58% under prob with positive EV at -110.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money align heavily on Central Arkansas (59%/64%), indicating market consensus without clear RLM divergence; math supports following on ML but fading spread due to FGCU home form in close games. Overall low-scoring outlook with FGCU defense holding opponents under 70 recently and simulation projecting 142 total. No key injuries reported in provided data.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Central Arkansas — aligned money and model win probability confirm edge on favorite.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.