NCAAB

Tennessee State vs Siu Edwardsville

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 08:44 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Tennessee St Tigers / Spread / -4.5 at -109 / 57%
Home team holds edge in implied probabilities from moneyline and home-court advantage in low-major matchup, with public bets nearly split but model projecting cover despite slight money lean to dog.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 143.5 at -108 / 55%
Combined offensive efficiencies and recent low-scoring trends in OVC play favor under, aligned with 55% public bets and 59% money on under in provided splits.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tennessee St Tigers / Moneyline / -180 / 62%
Favorites win 64%+ implied with strong 69% public bets and 74% money backing home side, supported by home advantage and no notable injuries reported.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tennessee St Tigers | 63% |
| Win % for SIU-Edwardsville Cougars | 36% |
| Spread Cover % for Tennessee St Tigers | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 143.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-11.2, 20.8] |

🏀 Matchup: Tennessee St Tigers vs SIU-Edwardsville Cougars on 2026-02-21
💸 Public Bets
[47% / 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[42% / 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books at -4 to -4.5 (no significant shift noted in provided data)
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Tennessee St spread; implied probs undervalue home cover at 56% sim rate vs line]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment on spread is nearly even at 47-53% favoring the dog, but money distribution shows sharper 58% handle on SIU-Edwardsville, creating divergence without clear RLM. Math and simulation favor following home side value rather than fading, as contextual home advantage outweighs mild sharp lean. Game projects as moderate-scoring affair under total based on OVC defensive paces and under money alignment.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on SIU-Edwardsville — Tennessee St Tigers offer best mathematical probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.