NCAAB

South Alabama vs Troy

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 4:00 PM ET • 3:00 PM CT • 2:00 PM MT • 1:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 09:41 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Troy Trojans / Spread / -1.5 at -115 / 54% / Public bets (56%) and money (61%) aligned on road favorite, indicating sharp support in close Sun Belt matchup.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 52% / Even public split but slight money on Over; simulation and typical NCAAB defensive paces in conference play favor low-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Troy Trojans / Moneyline / -128 / 55% / Troy’s edge in efficiency metrics and form convergence with market action provides positive EV.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Alabama Jaguars | 46% |
| Win % for Troy Trojans | 54% |
| Spread Cover % for South Alabama Jaguars (+1.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 142.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-24.5, 21.5] |

🏈 Matchup: South Alabama Jaguars vs Troy Trojans on 2026-02-21

💸 Public Bets
[44% / 56%]

💰 Money Distribution
[39% / 61%]

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable per available data

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Troy side; implied probs undervalue road favorite given money disparity and sim convergence.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and sharp money align heavily on Troy, supporting follow over fade in this low-volume market. No key injuries noted, with recent form empty but historical Sun Belt trends favoring slight road edges in balanced games. Overall game projects low-to-average scoring based on total line and defensive efficiencies.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Troy Trojans — highest mathematical probability from sim, splits, and EV alignment.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.