NCAAB
Tarleton vs 
Utah Tech
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 5:00 PM ET • 4:00 PM CT • 3:00 PM MT • 2:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 10:25 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Tarleton State Texans -2.5 at -112 | 54% Confidence | Simulation cover probability aligns closely with line after adjusting for home-court edge in WAC play; divergent money suggests value fading heavier away action.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 141.5 at -115 | 54% Confidence | Projected average total of 141.0 from 10k sims favors under; both teams project modest efficiencies with public/money leaning under.
💰 Best Bet #3 Tarleton State Texans ML at -148 | 56% Confidence | Home win probability of 54.7% exceeds implied 59.7% after vig, supported by market consensus on favorite despite slight public split.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tarleton State Texans | 54.7% |
| Win % for Utah Tech Trailblazers | 43.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Tarleton State Texans | 50.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.7% / Under: 51.3% |
| Average Total Points | 141.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-33, 37] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
🏀 Matchup: Tarleton State Texans vs Utah Tech Trailblazers
💸 Public Bets
[47% / 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[42% / 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books at -2.5 / 141.5
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Tarleton -2.5] Model probabilities converge with home advantage overriding slight public/money lean to away; positive EV on under from sim avg total.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets (53%) and money (58%) align on Utah Tech +2.5, indicating consensus but simulation reveals value fading due to projected 50.4% home cover rate and home efficiency edge. No key injuries reported; matchup projects low-scoring affair under 141.5 based on tempo and defensive metrics alignment. Contrarian play optimal as math supports home side despite sentiment.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Utah Tech +2.5 — simulation and home advantage provide clearest mathematical edge.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.