Villanova vs UConn

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 5:30 PM ET • 4:30 PM CT • 3:30 PM MT • 2:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 10:47 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 UConn Huskies / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / UConn shows edge in adjusted efficiency metrics and sim cover rate aligns with sharp money concentration despite public bets near even.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 140.5 at -105 / 54% / Defensive rebounding and turnover rates suggest controlled pace, avg sim total 139.5 supports under with public/money lean.

💰 Best Bet #3 UConn Huskies / Moneyline / -154 / 58% / Win probability converges at 58% from 10k sims, home/away splits and alignment confirm value.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UConn Huskies | 58% |
| Win % for Villanova Wildcats | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for UConn Huskies | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 139.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 15] |

Villanova Wildcats vs UConn Huskies on 2026-02-21

💸 Public Bets
Villanova 47% / UConn 53%

💰 Money Distribution
Villanova 42% / UConn 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable across books

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.8% on UConn -2.5; sim probs exceed implied odds with contextual defensive matchups.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distribution both favor UConn, indicating consensus without sharp resistance or RLM. Follow the public here as EV confirms on favorite spread and ML. Overall game projects low-scoring with under favored by pace and efficiency convergence.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with UConn — sims and alignment project highest probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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