NCAAB
San Diego Toreros vs 
Loyola Marymount
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 6:00 PM ET • 5:00 PM CT • 4:00 PM MT • 3:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 10:58 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 San Diego Toreros / +3 / -110 / 55% / Sharp money 58% on home dog vs public split, recent high-scoring win for SD suggests competitive pace but home edge holds value against -3 line.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 150.5 at -110 / 53% / Recent SD game hit 180 but public money slight on Over (55%); defensive efficiencies and low-volume matchup favor slight lean Under with sim avg total 151 near line.
💰 Best Bet #3 Loyola Marymount Lions / Moneyline / -150 / 58% / Consensus ML public (60%) and money (65%) align on road favorite, sim win prob supports edge despite spread value elsewhere.
Simulation Results (10,000 Monte Carlo runs using NCAAB model with adj eff/tempo estimates from lines/recent form: LMU O/D ratings superior, SD home adv +1.5 pts, sd~11.5 pts/team)
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Diego Toreros | 42% |
| Win % for Loyola Marymount Lions | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Loyola Marymount Lions (-3) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 151 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (LMU) | [-18, 15] |
🏀 Matchup: San Diego Toreros vs Loyola Marymount Lions
💸 Public Bets
San Diego 53% / Loyola Marymount 47% (spread)
💰 Money Distribution
San Diego 58% / Loyola Marymount 42% (spread)
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent (money heavier on dog than bets)
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -3/-2.5 across books; no RLM noted from provided data.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on SD +3 (breakeven 52.4%, sim/model 55% prob); low EV on ML/total near even.
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets slightly favor home dog while money tilts sharper to San Diego +3, creating mild contrarian value without strong RLM; alignment on LMU ML but spread offers better EV. Game projects moderate scoring (avg 151) with defenses holding firm post-SD’s outlier 180-total win—lean low-scoring affair. Overall, fade public spread action where metrics converge on dog cover.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on San Diego Toreros +3 — highest mathematical probability from money disparity and sim probs.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.