NCAAB
LSU vs 
Alabama
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 6:00 PM ET • 5:00 PM CT • 4:00 PM MT • 3:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 11:09 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Alabama Crimson Tide / -7.5 / -110 / 62% confidence
Simulation cover rate of 62% exceeds implied odds probability (~52%), public bets split near even but money 57% on dog signals potential sharp resistance on favorite with strong EV edge.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 172.5 at -110 / 55% confidence
Aggregated sim avg total 172.5 with 52% under probability aligns with money lean under (57%), defensive metrics and high line suggest low-scoring affair despite pace.
💰 Best Bet #3 Alabama Crimson Tide / Moneyline / -320 / 76% confidence
Model win probability 76% crushes implied ~76% breakeven but positive EV from public alignment on heavy favorite.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Alabama Crimson Tide | 76% |
| Win % for LSU Tigers | 24% |
| Spread Cover % for Alabama Crimson Tide | 62% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 172.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 27] |
🏀 Matchup: LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
💸 Public Bets
LSU 52% / Alabama 48%
💰 Money Distribution
LSU 57% / Alabama 43%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
N/A
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Alabama -7.5; sim convergence and RLM potential outweigh public dog lean.
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and money align on the spread dog (LSU +7.5) at 52%/57%, but simulation metrics favor Alabama cover with superior efficiency edge and no key injuries noted. Fade the public here as EV math supports favorite despite disparity under 70%. Game scoring outlook leans under given total line and under money lean.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on LSU +7.5 — Alabama -7.5 holds the best mathematical probability.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.