NCAAB

Nevada vs Utah State

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 10:00 PM ET • 9:00 PM CT • 8:00 PM MT • 7:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 11:56 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Utah State / -4.5 / -110 / 55% / Model projects 52% cover rate exceeding implied 52.4%, public bets (51%) and money (56%) aligned on favorite with strong efficiency edge.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 148.5 -110 / 52% / Simulated avg total 152 exceeds line despite public lean under (56%), driven by combined offensive ratings and pace.

💰 Best Bet #3 Utah State / Moneyline / -210 / 66% / Simulation yields 66% win probability vs implied 67.7%, convergence of market and model supports value.

Simulation Results (10,000 Monte Carlo runs using adj efficiency, tempo, home advantage)
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Nevada Wolf Pack | 34% |
| Win % for Utah State Aggies | 66% |
| Spread Cover % for Nevada Wolf Pack (+4.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (USU – Nevada) | [-14, 23] |

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🏀 Matchup: Nevada Wolf Pack vs Utah State Aggies

💸 Public Bets
Nevada 49% / Utah State 51%

💰 Money Distribution
Nevada 44% / Utah State 56%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
No line movement data available

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% EV on Utah State -4.5; model cover prob (52%) > break-even (52.4%), backed by public/money consensus.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distribution both favor Utah State (51%/56% on spread), aligning with sharp indicators and model simulation showing a 66% win probability for the Aggies. Follow the consensus as contrarian fade lacks EV support from RLM or metrics. Overall scoring projects moderately high at 152 points average, favoring the over despite public under lean.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Utah State — model and market convergence confirms highest probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.