NCAAB

Quinnipiac vs Fairfield

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 07:36 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Quinnipiac Bobcats / -6 / -107 / 58% / Home favorite with aligned ML public action despite spread divergence, sim cover probability exceeds implied.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 149.5 / -110 / 56% / Money leaning under (58%), recent trends and defensive efficiencies project avg total below line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Quinnipiac Bobcats / Moneyline / -250 / 68% / Strong home win probability from market consensus and sim (68%).

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Quinnipiac Bobcats | 68% |
| Win % for Fairfield Stags | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Quinnipiac Bobcats | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 149.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19, 31] |

🏀 Matchup: Quinnipiac Bobcats vs Fairfield Stags

💸 Public Bets
[48% / 52%]

💰 Money Distribution
[43% / 57%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable around -6 across books, slight shading toward home from +6.5 (DK) to +6 (others).

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Quinnipiac spread; sim probs exceed vigged implied (52% cover vs. 52% line), confirmed by ML alignment.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public slightly favors Fairfield spread cover but money follows at 57% on dog, indicating some sharp resistance; however, ML shows strong alignment (75/80% on Quinnipiac) with sim supporting home dominance. Fade public spread action as EV favors home cover. Game projects moderate scoring with under edge from money flow and avg total projection.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Fairfield — Quinnipiac holds mathematical edge across key markets.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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