NCAAB

North Texas vs Florida Atlantic

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 4:00 PM ET • 3:00 PM CT • 2:00 PM MT • 1:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 07:49 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 North Texas / -2.5 / -2.5 at -105 / 54% / Recent low-scoring wins for North Texas at home, defensive edge in simulations despite public lean to underdog

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 62% / North Texas recent games averaged 132 total points, strong under convergence with money %

💰 Best Bet #3 North Texas / Moneyline / -144 / 58% / Home favorite with positive EV after market check, 60% public bets aligning

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for North Texas | 58% |
| Win % for Florida Atlantic | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for North Texas | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 38% / Under: 62% |
| Average Total Points | 135 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-17, 22] |

💸 Public Bets
North Texas 47% / Florida Atlantic 53%

💰 Money Distribution
North Texas 42% / Florida Atlantic 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
No significant movement; lines stable across books at North Texas -2.5 (140.5 total)

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on North Texas -2.5; sim probs exceed implied odds with home defensive form

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets slightly favor Florida Atlantic +2.5 (53%) but money leans heavier (58%), creating divergence that simulations resolve in favor of North Texas cover via strong home defense. Sharp resistance to public via money % supports fading the dog. Overall game projects low-scoring at 135 avg total, favoring Under decisively based on North Texas recent trends (132 avg).

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Florida Atlantic — North Texas holds mathematical edge with 54% cover probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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