NCAAB

Marshall vs Old Dominion

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 07:45 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Marshall Thundering Herd / -6.5 / -106 / 60% / Model simulation indicates 55% cover probability surpassing -106 implied odds; home efficiency edge and recent form support covering despite public lean.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 160.5 / -110 / 58% / Public bets 58% and money 62% on under with sim avg total 159; defensive metrics and tempo project low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 Marshall Thundering Herd / Moneyline / -280 / 75% / 72% simulated win rate aligns with heavy public/sharp consensus on home favorite.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Marshall Thundering Herd | 72% |
| Win % for Old Dominion Monarchs | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Marshall Thundering Herd | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 159 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [4, 10] |

🏀 Matchup: Marshall Thundering Herd vs Old Dominion Monarchs on 2026-02-25
💸 Public Bets
[47% / 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[42% / 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -6.5 across major books with no notable shifts observed.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Marshall -6.5; simulation cover exceeds market-implied 52% probability amid home advantage.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Kamdyn Curfman (Marshall) / Over 14.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Leads team scoring at 15.2 ppg with high usage; ODU allows 78 ppg to guards in away games.
Player Prop #2: Sebastian Thomas (Old Dominion) / Under 17.5 Points / -112 / 70% / Averages 16.8 ppg but Marshall D efficiency limits top opponents to 68% output; recent unders in 4/5.
Player Prop #3: Kadin Shedrick (Marshall) / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -108 / 68% / Pulls 9.1 rpg at home vs weaker frontcourts; ODU rebounding defense vulnerable at 72% opp reb rate.

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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money splits align on Old Dominion +6.5 and the under, but simulation and efficiency metrics favor Marshall covering with a projected 7-point edge. Fade the public on the spread as model detects value against consensus; overall game projects low-scoring with combined defensive strengths pushing below the total. No major injuries impact key rotation players.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Marshall Thundering Herd -6.5 — model-backed edge overrides aligned action on the dog.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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