NCAAB

Dayton vs St. Louis Billikens

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 07:53 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Dayton Flyers / +4.5 / -105 / 58%
Money concentration on the home dog (56%) despite near-even public bets signals sharp action; simulation shows 49.8% cover probability with stable line offering value.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 156.5 at -108 / 55%
Model projects 155.5 average total with 52.7% under probability aligning with money (58% under) and recent low-scoring trends in provided games.

💰 Best Bet #3 Saint Louis Billikens / Moneyline / -218 / 62%
Away favorite holds 63.1% win probability in simulations, supported by public (73%) and money (78%) consensus despite heavy favoritism.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dayton Flyers | 36.9% |
| Win % for Saint Louis Billikens | 63.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Dayton Flyers | 49.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47.3% / Under: 52.7% |
| Average Total Points | 155.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-34, 26] |

🏀 Matchup: Dayton Flyers vs Saint Louis Billikens

💸 Public Bets
[Dayton 51% / Saint Louis 49%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Dayton 56% / Saint Louis 44%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable lines across sources; no significant shifts from opening to current -4.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.1% on Dayton +4.5; money disparity vs public bets and simulation convergence indicate value despite favorite favoritism.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Nate Santos (Dayton Flyers) / Over Points / 15.5 at -110 / 68%
Averages 16.8 PPG in recent outings with high usage (28%) against average defenses; Dayton’s home offense supports volume.

Player Prop #2: Gibson Jimerson (Saint Louis Billikens) / Under Points / 19.5 at -112 / 65%
Recent form 17.2 PPG amid tougher matchups; Dayton allows low opponent efficiency, projecting regression.

Player Prop #3: Javon Bennett (Dayton Flyers) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -105 / 62%
Distributes 5.1 APG lately in home games with elevated pace; St. Louis turnover-prone defense aids playmaking.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans heavily toward Saint Louis on the moneyline (73% bets), but divergent spread money (56% on Dayton) suggests sharp resistance to the favorite, aligning with model’s tight cover projection. Follow the money on the dog spread while fading public ML hype. Game outlook favors a lower-scoring affair given simulation average and under-biased splits.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Saint Louis — value lies with Dayton +4.5.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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