NCAAB
Kent State vs 
Central Michigan
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 07:59 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Kent State Golden Flashes / -11.5 / -110 / 82%
Kent State dominates recent matchups with strong home-court metrics and simulation projecting a 58% cover rate against the line, supported by superior adjusted efficiency edges.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 156.5 / -110 / 88%
Kent State’s recent games average 139 total points, defensive strengths limit opponents, and public/money leans under with 56%/60% favoring low-scoring affair per data.
💰 Best Bet #3 Kent State Golden Flashes / Moneyline / -780 / 85%
Overwhelming public alignment (89% bets/94% money) converges with simulation win probability near 85%, confirming positive EV on heavy favorite.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Kent State Golden Flashes | 85.0% |
| Win % for Central Michigan Chippewas | 14.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Kent State Golden Flashes | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 22.0% / Under: 78.0% |
| Average Total Points | 144.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.0, 37.0] |
🏀 Matchup: Kent State Golden Flashes vs Central Michigan Chippewas
💸 Public Bets
[Kent State 48% / Central Michigan 52%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Kent State 43% / Central Michigan 57%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]
📉 Line Movement
[Stable across sources at -11.5; no significant RLM observed in provided data]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on Kent State spread; sim cover exceeds implied 52.4% breakeven, under offers +15% EV vs line]
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: CJ Payton (Kent State) / Over 14.5 Points / -110 / 78% Recent usage and scoring average support exceeding line against weaker CMU defense.
Player Prop #2: Jalon Dendy (Kent State) / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -112 / 75% Dominant rebounding rates in recent wins, matchup favors boards vs CMU.
Player Prop #3: Caleb Hodgson (Central Michigan) / Under 12.5 Points / -110 / 80% Limited efficiency and Kent State’s defensive rebounding suppress output.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Kent State on moneyline with sharp money alignment, but spread shows divergence with money on the dog indicating potential value on the favorite cover backed by simulation. Metrics and recent low totals point to a controlled, under outcome rather than a blowout. Follow public on ML while fading spread dog money for optimal EV.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Kent State — simulation and consensus metrics confirm highest probability.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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