NCAAB

Missouri vs Tennessee

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 08:17 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Tennessee Volunteers / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58%
Tennessee holds edge in public bets (52%) and money (57%), with aligned market supporting cover against a middling Missouri squad.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 143.5 at -112 / 55%
Slight money lean to under (56%) aligns with consensus totals around 143-144.5 across books, fitting defensive expectations in SEC matchup.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tennessee Volunteers / Moneyline / -185 / 62%
Strong favoritism backed by 66% public bets and 71% money, reflecting superior form implied by line stability.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Missouri Tigers | 38% |
| Win % for Tennessee Volunteers | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Missouri Tigers (+3.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 143 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20.2, 27.2] |

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🏀 Matchup: Missouri Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers on February 25
💸 Public Bets
[48% / 52%]
💰 Money Distribution
[43% / 57%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books, holding at Tennessee -3.5 and total ~144 despite moderate volume.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Tennessee -3.5 — Public/money convergence with implied probs exceeding vig on spread.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Zakai Zeigler (Tennessee) / Over 11.5 Points / -110 / 72% — Zeigler’s high usage rate (28%) and Missouri’s poor perimeter D (36% opp 3PT allowed recently) favor scoring outburst.
Player Prop #2: Jordan Gainey (Tennessee) / Over 4.5 Rebounds / -112 / 68% — Gainey averages 5.2 RPG vs similar foes, exploiting Missouri’s weak offensive rebounding (28% rate).
Player Prop #3: Caleb Grill (Missouri) / Under 14.5 Points / -110 / 70% — Tennessee’s elite defense limits wings to 12 PPG avg, Grill held under in 4/5 recent vs top-50 teams.

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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment slightly favors Tennessee on spread and moneyline, aligning with sharp money indicators and no reverse line movement, making follow optimal over fade. Defensive metrics project a controlled pace, supporting under with both teams trending low-scoring in recent outings. Overall game outlook leans toward mid-140s total, favoring disciplined play on favorite.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Tennessee Volunteers — Highest probability edge confirmed by sim and market data.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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