NCAAB
Utah Utes vs 
Iowa State
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 08:21 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Iowa State Cyclones / Spread / -12.5 at -112 / 56% / Consensus line holds value against public/money lean to Utah; heavy ML favoritism and Utah’s modest recent offense (71.3 PPG) support cover.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 144.5 at -108 / 62% / Utah recent games average 140.7 total points with strong defense (69.3 PA); matchup projects below line despite neutral pace.
💰 Best Bet #3 Iowa State Cyclones / Moneyline / -1100 / 87% / Overwhelming market consensus and implied dominance outweighs juice for high-confidence outcome.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Iowa State Cyclones | 85% |
| Win % for Utah Utes | 15% |
| Spread Cover % for Iowa State Cyclones | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 56% |
| Average Total Points | 143 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 31] |
🏀 Matchup: Utah Utes vs Iowa State Cyclones on 2026-02-25
💸 Public Bets
Utah 52% / Iowa State 48%
💰 Money Distribution
Utah 57% / Iowa State 43%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable across sources (-12.5 to -13.5); no significant RLM observed in provided data
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Iowa State -12.5; public bets/money disparity creates contrarian value aligned with sim cover rate and Utah’s limited scoring (71.3 PPG recent)
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Tamin Lipsey (Iowa State) / Over Points / 14.5 at -112 / 72% / High usage rate in Iowa State’s efficient offense vs Utah’s average perimeter D allowing 72 PPG recently
Player Prop #2: Joshua Jefferson (Iowa State) / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 68% / Strong rebounding splits (avg 7+ last 3) against Utah’s weaker interior (69.3 PA total)
Player Prop #3: Deivon Smith (Utah) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -112 / 65% / Primary playmaker in Utah’s halfcourt set (avg 5 recent) vs Iowa State’s press allowing assists in transition
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment diverges with slight spread favoritism toward Utah but overwhelming ML support for Iowa State, where money concentration signals sharp alignment on the favorite; fade the spread public lean as sim and Utah’s defensive metrics (69.3 PA) justify Iowa cover. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring given Utah’s recent totals averaging 140.7 points and neutral matchup pace. Contrarian edge favors Iowa State sides without invalidating under.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Utah — Iowa State spread carries the strongest EV.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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