NCAAB
Baylor vs 
Arizona
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 08:37 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Baylor Bears / +8.5 / -110 / 62%
Sharp money 57% on the dog with public bets near even at 52%; simulation projects 58% cover rate amid Arizona’s road challenges.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 154.5 / -112 / 59%
Public bets 58% and money 62% on under; combined defensive efficiencies and pace project average total of 152 points.
💰 Best Bet #3 Arizona Wildcats / Moneyline / -425 / 77%
Model win probability 77% aligns with line movement stability and heavy public backing (86% bets).
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Baylor Bears | 25% |
| Win % for Arizona Wildcats | 75% |
| Spread Cover % for Baylor Bears (+8.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14, 33] |
Baylor Bears vs Arizona Wildcats on February 25, 2026
💸 Public Bets
52% / 48%
💰 Money Distribution
57% / 43%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books; spread holds at -8.5 for Arizona with no significant shifts.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Baylor +8.5 — Model edge from sharp money concentration on dog (57%) exceeding public bets, supported by 58% sim cover probability vs. -110 implied 52.4%.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: K.J. Lewis (Arizona) / Over 16.5 Points / -115 / 72% — Lewis averages 17.8 PPG in recent outings with high usage (28%) vs. Baylor’s mid-tier perimeter D allowing 16.2 PPG to wings.
Player Prop #2: Jayden Nunn (Baylor) / Over 12.5 Points / -110 / 68% — Nunn hits 13.2 PPG last 10 games at home, exploiting Arizona’s road defensive lapses (opponents avg 72 PPG).
Player Prop #3: Motiejus Krivas (Arizona) / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -112 / 70% — Krivas grabs 8.4 RPG recently, strong vs. Baylor’s weaker interior rebounding (42% opp reb rate).
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment splits evenly on the spread but heavily favors Arizona ML (86%), while sharp money tilts to Baylor +8.5 (57%), signaling value on the dog amid sim-projected close cover. Follow sharp action here as EV converges with money disparity and model metrics; no strong RLM but alignment boosts confidence. Overall game projects low-scoring at 152 total due to deliberate paces (68-70) and solid defenses (eff ratings ~105-108).
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the sharp money on Baylor +8.5 — Highest EV at +3.2% with 58% projected hit rate.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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