NCAAB

Rice vs South Florida

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 09:13 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 South Florida / Spread / -11.5 at -110 / 64% / USF’s explosive offense averaging 101 PPG in recent games overwhelms Rice’s defense allowing 78.7 PPG, simulation confirms strong cover probability despite slight money on dog.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 157.5 at -110 / 59% / USF high-scoring outings (avg total 182) vs Rice’s middling defense push combined output to 162 expected, contrarian to 60% public under bets.

💰 Best Bet #3 South Florida / Moneyline / -780 / 84% / Dominant recent wins and offensive edge yield high win probability aligning with market consensus.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Rice Owls | 16% |
| Win % for South Florida Bulls | 84% |
| Spread Cover % for South Florida Bulls | 64% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 59% / Under: 41% |
| Average Total Points | 162 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 48] |

🏀 Matchup: Rice Owls vs South Florida Bulls

💸 Public Bets
[Rice 51% / South Florida 49%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Rice 56% / South Florida 44%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -11.5 per provided data with limited early action

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on South Florida -11.5 (64% sim prob vs 52% implied); +2.5% on Over 157.5

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Corey Floyd Jr (South Florida) / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 72% / USF’s leading scorer in recent high-output games (20+ avg), faces Rice D allowing 78+ PPG.
Player Prop #2: Max Fiedler (Rice) / Under 8.5 Rebounds / -112 / 68% / Rice’s low-possession games limit boards, recent avg 7.3 vs similar foes.
Player Prop #3: Selton Miguel (South Florida) / Over 4.5 Assists / -105 / 70% / High usage playmaker in up-tempo offense, recent 5.7 APG with full minutes expected.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment splits near-evenly on spread but piles heavily (92%) on South Florida ML, with money slightly favoring Rice +11.5 indicating possible sharp dog play; however, simulation and recent form (USF 101 PPG offense) support fading the dog money for USF cover. Game scoring outlook tilts higher due to Bulls’ attack vs Owls’ porous D, favoring Over despite public Under lean. Contrarian logic applies mildly as NCAAB markets show inefficiencies on heavy favorites.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Rice / South Florida -11.5 —

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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