NCAAB
UTSA Roadrunners vs 
East Carolina
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 09:18 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 East Carolina Pirates / -4.5 / -110 / 56% / ECU exploits UTSA’s recent 0-4 slump and poor defensive average of 84.5 points allowed, with public/money alignment supporting cover despite close splits
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 151.5 / -110 / 55% / Recent UTSA games average 151.5 total points matching line, but defensive focus and money 58% on under in low-EV spot favor suppression
💰 Best Bet #3 East Carolina Pirates / Moneyline / -200 / 58% / Superior form edges align with 69% public bets and 74% money on ECU in matchup vs struggling Roadrunners
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UTSA Roadrunners | 42% |
| Win % for East Carolina Pirates | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for UTSA Roadrunners (+4.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 151.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +8] |
🏈 Matchup: UTSA Roadrunners vs East Carolina Pirates on 2026-02-26
💸 Public Bets
[49% / 51%]
💰 Money Distribution
[44% / 56%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -4 to -4.5 across books with slight money shift to ECU
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on ECU -4.5 — Implied prob 51% vs model 56% win/cover convergence, UTSA avg margin -17.5 recent
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: RJ Felton (East Carolina) / Over 15.5 Points / -115 / 72% / ECU guard usage high in recent wins, averages 16+ vs similar defenses, matchup favors ISO scoring
Player Prop #2: Max Fiedler (UTSA) / Under 12.5 Rebounds / -110 / 68% / Roadrunners forward limited by ECU frontcourt, recent 8 reb avg with poor team rebounding rate
Player Prop #3: Caleb Coombs (East Carolina) / Over 4.5 Assists / -112 / 70% / Pirates playmaker thrives in tempo ~70, 5+ ast last 3, UTSA turnover-prone defense
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment slightly favors ECU with aligned money percentages, supporting follow over fade as metrics confirm edge from UTSA’s 0-4 skid and -17.5 avg margin. Sharp action inferred from money disparity on road favorite. Game projects moderate scoring near 151 total, leaning under on defensive regression for both.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with East Carolina Pirates — Highest probability backed by form, splits, and simulation.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.