NCAAB

North Alabama vs Bellarmine

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:45 PM ET • 7:45 PM CT • 6:45 PM MT • 5:45 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 09:24 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 North Alabama Lions / +2.5 / +2.5 at -110 / 58% / Sharp money 56% on home dog despite even public split, simulation shows 52% cover rate in close matchup with recent defensive vulnerabilities

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 62% / Recent games average 160+ points combining high offensive outputs from both (UNA 80.5 PPG home, Bellarmine 86.3 PPG recent), public leaning under creates value

💰 Best Bet #3 North Alabama Lions / Moneyline / +124 / 55% / True win probability ~48% vs implied ~44%, positive EV on underdog with home edge and money flow

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for North Alabama Lions | 48% |
| Win % for Bellarmine Knights | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for North Alabama Lions (+2.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 65% / Under: 35% |
| Average Total Points | 160 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 19] |

🏀 Matchup: North Alabama Lions vs Bellarmine Knights
💸 Public Bets
[51% / 49%]
💰 Money Distribution
[56% / 44%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -2.5 to Bellarmine with money flowing to home underdog
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on North Alabama +2.5 — simulation alignment with sharp money disparity outweighs slight public lean

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Tanner Leonard (North Alabama Lions) / Over 16.5 Points / 16.5 at -110 / 72% / Leads team scoring at 18.2 PPG recent home games, Bellarmine allows 78 PPG with weak perimeter D
Player Prop #2: Dallas Norris (North Alabama Lions) / Over 5.5 Assists / 5.5 at -112 / 68% / High usage PG averaging 6.1 APG last 3, matchup favors transition pace
Player Prop #3: Blake Preston (Bellarmine Knights) / Over 11.5 Rebounds / 11.5 at -108 / 70% / Dominant big at 12.4 RPG recent, UNA weak on boards allowing 80+ PPG

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public evenly split on spread but leaning favorite on moneyline, while money favors the home dog indicating sharp resistance to Bellarmine hype from recent wins. Metrics converge on close high-scoring affair with both offenses efficient vs opponent defenses (UNA home 80.5 allowed, Bellarmine 86+ scored). Fade public ML sentiment optimal as EV favors underdog cover.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Bellarmine — North Alabama +2.5 holds strongest edge.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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