NCAAB

Alabama vs Mississippi St.

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 09:28 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Alabama / Spread / -13.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation shows 52.6% cover probability vs. implied 52.4%, value despite money skew to dog; recent form supports home dominance.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 175.5 at -110 / 68% / Avg simulated total 170.1 with 66.6% under probability; aligns with public/money (58%/62% under) and recent game averages under line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Mississippi St / Moneyline / +800 / 62% / True win probability 12.8% exceeds implied 11.1% for +15% EV; contrarian fade of 91% public on Alabama amid heavy juice.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Alabama Crimson Tide | 85.3% |
| Win % for Mississippi St Bulldogs | 12.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5) | 52.6% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 33.4% / Under: 66.6% |
| Average Total Points | 170.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-11, 39] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Mark Sears (Alabama) / Over 21.5 Points / -110 / 75% / High usage lead guard averages 22+ PPG recently, favorable matchup vs. MSU perimeter D allowing 24 PPG to PGs.
Player Prop #2: Grant Nelson (Alabama) / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -112 / 72% / Dominant frontcourt presence, recent double-doubles in 3/3 games; MSU weak on glass (38% def reb%).
Player Prop #3: Josh Hubbard (Mississippi St) / Under 16.5 Points / -110 / 70% / Struggles vs. elite defenses like Alabama (top-20 eff D), under in 2/3 recent vs. power teams.

🏀 Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi St Bulldogs

💸 Public Bets
[44% / 56%]

💰 Money Distribution
[39% / 61%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -13.5; no major shifts despite money on dog

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Alabama spread (sim edge), +15% EV on MSU ML (prob > implied); strongest +14% on Under 175.5

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Alabama ML (91%) but splits on spread with money leaning MSU +13.5 (61%), signaling potential sharp resistance to favorite; however, simulation confirms slim cover edge for Alabama while exposing value in contrarian MSU ML. Totals show strong under alignment across public, money, and sim (66.6% prob, avg 170 pts), driven by defensive efficiencies and recent unders in high-line games. Fade public ML overreaction, follow consensus under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Alabama — Mississippi St ML +800

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.