NCAAB
Wagner vs 
New Haven Chargers
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 07:58 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Wagner Seahawks / Spread / -1.5 at -120 / 56% / Recent close home losses but defensive edge in low-scoring affairs aligns with public money at 62%, home-field supports cover.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 130.5 at -113 / 58% / Both teams’ recent games average under 135 total points with Wagner’s home contests trending low (124-141 range recently), defensive metrics favor subdued scoring.
💰 Best Bet #3 Wagner Seahawks / Moneyline / -137 / 58% / Model projects 58% win probability vs implied 57.8%, backed by home advantage and superior recent scoring efficiency.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Wagner Seahawks | 58% |
| Win % for New Haven Chargers | 40% |
| Spread Cover % for Wagner Seahawks | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 129 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9, 13] |
💸 Public Bets
Wagner 57% / New Haven 43%
💰 Money Distribution
Wagner 62% / New Haven 38%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable around -1.5 to -2 across books, no significant RLM despite public lean on home side
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Wagner -1.5; implied probs undervalue home win probability based on recent form and simulation
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns closely with sharp money on Wagner, supporting a follow rather than fade in this matchup. Recent low-scoring trends for both squads, particularly Wagner’s home games, point to a grind-it-out affair under the total. No major injuries reported in provided data, preserving key contributors on both sides.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Wagner Seahawks — best mathematical probability of winning.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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