NCAAB

Stonehill vs St. Francis (PA)

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:06 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Stonehill Skyhawks -5.5 at -112 / 65% / Public and money aligned on home favorite with St. Francis’ poor recent offense (avg 62 PPG), Stonehill covers in sims

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 140.5 at -108 / 58% / Both teams low-scoring recent (Stonehill avg total ~139, St. Francis ~144 but poor O/D matchups favor under)

💰 Best Bet #3 Stonehill Skyhawks Moneyline -218 / 72% / Dominant win probability from form disparity and home edge

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Stonehill Skyhawks | 73% |
| Win % for St. Francis (PA) Red Flash | 27% |
| Spread Cover % for Stonehill Skyhawks | 62% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 26] |

🏀 Matchup: Stonehill Skyhawks vs St. Francis (PA) Red Flash on 2026-02-27
💸 Public Bets
[52% / 48%]
💰 Money Distribution
[57% / 43%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -5.5; no reverse movement despite balanced public bets
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Stonehill -5.5 — model cover rate exceeds implied probability, backed by recent form gaps

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Gerald Drumgoole (Stonehill) / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Leads team scoring avg 17+ PPG recently, favorable matchup vs weak St. Francis defense allowing high opponent efficiency
Player Prop #2: Cam Gregory (St. Francis PA) / Under 12.5 Points / -112 / 62% / Struggling offense (team avg 62 PPG), recent unders in low-possession games
Player Prop #3: Nate Barner (Stonehill) / Over 5.5 Rebounds / -108 / 65% / Strong rebounding rate vs St. Francis poor defensive rebounding (recent allowed 40+ RPG opponents)

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment on Stonehill aligns with sharp money indicators (higher money % on home), supported by St. Francis’ dismal recent form (3 straight losses, poor scoring). Follow optimal here as metrics confirm edge without contrarian need. Overall game projects low-scoring with combined recent averages under line.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Stonehill — highest mathematical probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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