NCAAB
Gardner Webb vs 
UNC Asheville
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:18 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 UNC Asheville / -13.5 / -108 / 58%
UNC Asheville’s superior recent form (wins over weaker foes, avg 78 PPG scored) exploits Gardner-Webb’s porous defense (allowing 93+ PPG lately), projecting a comfortable cover despite even public split.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / 145.5 / -110 / 61%
Combined recent averages exceed 150 total points (Gardner-Webb games avg 170, UNC Asheville ~145), with both offenses efficient against leaky defenses—contrarian to 58% public under bets.
💰 Best Bet #3 UNC Asheville / Moneyline / -1200 / 87%
Overwhelming edge in win probability aligns with 91% public bets/96% money on favorite, backed by Gardner-Webb’s 0-3 skid and UNC Asheville’s positive turnover margin.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Gardner-Webb Bulldogs | 13% |
| Win % for UNC Asheville Bulldogs | 87% |
| Spread Cover % for UNC Asheville | 57% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 61% / Under: 39% |
| Average Total Points | 159 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [UNC Asheville +8, +22] |
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🏀 Matchup: Gardner-Webb Bulldogs vs UNC Asheville Bulldogs
💸 Public Bets
[Gardner-Webb 50% / UNC Asheville 50%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Gardner-Webb 55% / UNC Asheville 45%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable around -13 to -13.5; no significant RLM despite money leaning dog.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on UNC Asheville -13.5 (implied 52% vs model 57% cover rate from sim, recent defensive metrics).
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Josh Roberts (UNC Asheville) / Over 17.5 Points / -115 / 71%
Roberts thrives vs poor defenses like Gardner-Webb’s (93 PPG allowed), hitting over in 4/5 recent with 19.2 avg on high usage.
Player Prop #2: Isaiah Richards (Gardner-Webb) / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -110 / 69%
Richards grabs 9+ boards/game lately amid Gardner-Webb’s rebounding battles (opp avg 40 RPG), matchup favors volume.
Player Prop #3: Garrett Sanderson (UNC Asheville) / Over 5.5 Assists / -112 / 67%
Sanderson’s playmaking (6.4 APG recent) explodes vs slow Gardner-Webb tempo, exceeding in 70% of sims with healthy minutes.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily backs UNC Asheville ML (91%) with aligned money, but spread sees divergent action with money on dog; sim and metrics favor following UNC cover over fading. Contrarian under public ignored as offensive/defensive data (Gardner 93 allowed, UNC 78 scored) projects high total. Overall outlook: UNC dominates in moderate-to-high scoring affair.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with UNC Asheville — model projects 87% win with spread value.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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