NCAAB
Le Moyne vs 
Fairleigh Dickinson
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:24 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Le Moyne Dolphins / -4.5 / at -110 / 58% / Simulation cover rate 57%, public/sharp alignment on home favorite with recent defensive edge over struggling FDU offense
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / 139.5 / at -110 / 55% / Combined recent game totals average 157, offensive paces support push past line despite slight public Under lean
💰 Best Bet #3 Le Moyne Dolphins / Moneyline / -220 / 65% / Model win probability 64% exceeds implied 69% odds, home advantage in matchup
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Le Moyne Dolphins | 64% |
| Win % for Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Le Moyne Dolphins | 57% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points | 139 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18, 22] |
🏀 Matchup: Le Moyne Dolphins vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights on 2026-02-27
💸 Public Bets
[Le Moyne 52% / Fairleigh Dickinson 48%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Le Moyne 57% / Fairleigh Dickinson 43%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable; varied slightly from -5.5 to -4.5 across books with money favoring home
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Le Moyne -4.5 (model 57% vs implied 52%) based on recent scoring trends and home splits
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Oed Post (Le Moyne) / Over 16.5 Points / at -110 / 72% / Averages 18 PPG recently, FDU allows 82+ PPG to forwards in weak defensive matchups
Player Prop #2: Sean Moore (Fairleigh Dickinson) / Under 12.5 Rebounds / at -110 / 68% / Recent avg 10 amid Le Moyne’s solid rebounding rate, fatigue from back-to-back road games
Player Prop #3: Mike DeLorenzo (Le Moyne) / Over 4.5 Assists / at -110 / 70% / High usage guard at 5.2 APG last 5, exploits FDU turnover-prone defense (18% TO rate)
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money percentages align on Le Moyne spread, indicating market consensus without sharp resistance, making follow optimal over fade. Le Moyne’s home splits and FDU’s poor away offense (avg 66 PPG) drive positive EV on favorite. Overall scoring outlook moderate-high with average total near line but recent trends favoring slight Over.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Le Moyne —
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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