NCAAB
Le Moyne vs 
Fairleigh Dickinson
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:25 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Le Moyne Dolphins / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58%
Home team shows edge in simulation cover rate with recent defensive improvements at home and FDU’s poor away allowed points averaging 89; public/money alignment supports without heavy public skew.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 56%
Recent games for both teams average totals over 150 with Le Moyne games at 153ppg and FDU at 161ppg; pace and efficiency metrics favor high-scoring affair despite slight money on under.
💰 Best Bet #3 Le Moyne Dolphins / Moneyline / -220 / 62%
Model projects 62% win probability vs implied 68.8%, but positive EV from home advantage and FDU’s 0-3 recent away losses by double digits.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Le Moyne Dolphins | 62% |
| Win % for Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Le Moyne Dolphins | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14, 16] |
🏀 Matchup: Le Moyne Dolphins vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights on February 27
💸 Public Bets
[52% / 48%]
💰 Money Distribution
[57% / 43%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -4.5 to -5 across books with no significant RLM.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Le Moyne spread; model prob exceeds implied by 4% with recent form convergence.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Ozzian Bedore (Le Moyne) / Over 13.5 Points / -110 / 72% Recent avg 16.2 pts last 3, FDU allows 82ppg with weak perimeter D supporting volume usage.
Player Prop #2: Grant Singleton (FDU) / Over 18.5 Points / -112 / 68% Averages 20.1 pts recently, Le Moyne def yields high to guards at home pace.
Player Prop #3: Mike DeFeo (Le Moyne) / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -108 / 70% Grabs 9.3 rpg last 3, exploits FDU’s poor offensive rebounding rate (28%).
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment on Le Moyne aligns closely with money percentages and simulation outputs, indicating market consensus without sharp resistance or heavy public over 65%. Follow the favorite here as recent away struggles for FDU and home efficiency for Le Moyne create clear value; overall game projects moderately high-scoring around 152 total based on offensive averages vs defenses. No major injuries reported, preserving key contributors.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Le Moyne — model confirms highest probability on home spread and ML.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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