NBA
Indiana Pacers vs 
New York Knicks
League: NBA | Game Time: 7:30 PM ET • 6:30 PM CT • 5:30 PM MT • 4:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-03-13 05:08 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 Indiana Pacers +13.5 at -112 / 68% / Simulation shows 66% cover probability exceeding implied 53%, supported by Knicks injuries to Towns and Hart creating uncertainty while public only 53% on Knicks spread.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over 227 at -110 / 55% / Pacers’ recent games average 241 total points with defensive lapses allowing 128.4 per game; sim avg 228 slightly above line despite money 61% on under.
💰 Best Bet #3 Indiana Pacers ML +570 / 42% / Contrarian fade of 90% public/95% money on Knicks yields value as sim adjusted win prob 38% >> 15% implied, amplified by NBA public overreaction to favorite.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 38% |
| Win % for New York Knicks | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana Pacers | 66% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 228 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-41.2, 29.1] |
🏈 Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks on 2026-03-13
💸 Public Bets
[47% / 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[42% / 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable across sources; no reverse movement despite heavy Knicks ML action
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Pacers +13.5 (+12% EV); true cover prob 66% vs 53% implied, justified by Knicks questionable stars and Pacers home resilience in blowouts
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jalen Brunson / Over 27.5 Points / 27.5 at -110 / 75% / Lead guard with high usage (est. 30%) vs Pacers allowing high scoring recently; 80% hit rate in similar spots.
Player Prop #2: Bennedict Mathurin / Over 18.5 Points / 18.5 at -112 / 72% / Primary scorer on depleted Pacers roster, volume up in losses averaging 20+ implied from form; Knicks def vulnerable without full frontcourt.
Player Prop #3: Aaron Nesmith / Over 3.5 Rebounds / 3.5 at -110 / 70% / Key wing rebounder for Pacers (reb rate high), Knicks missing Towns boosts opp boards; 70% recent hit rate.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Knicks ML (90%) with money alignment (95%), but divergence on spread bets signals potential sharp resistance; fade optimal given NBA inefficiency on heavy favorites and Knicks’ questionable injuries to Towns/Hart. Metrics show Pacers competitive in covers despite 0-10 skid, with game projecting moderate scoring (228 avg) over line due to Pacers’ leaky defense. Contrarian edges strongest on Pacers spread/ML.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on New York Knicks — mathematical probability favors Pacers sides.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– Indiana Pacers +13.5 — This spread offers a massive mathematical edge as the Knicks have officially downgraded both Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart to doubtful, leaving New York without its primary interior presence and top perimeter defender.
– Over 227.5 — The over has hit in ten of Indiana’s.