MLB

New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers

League: MLB | Game Time: 7:10 PM ET • 6:10 PM CT • 5:10 PM MT • 4:10 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-05-13 05:22 PM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 Mets +1.5 / Spread / +1.5 at -200 / 68% / Mets strong recent pitching (3.1 ERA equivalent allowed), Tigers poor recent scoring; sim shows 68% cover rate vs implied 67%.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 8 at -115 / 55% / Mets low-scoring recent games (avg total 7.4), Tigers offense struggling; public over 59% but sim avg 7.7 with 52% under prob.

💰 Best Bet #3 Mets / Moneyline / -112 / 58% / Home form 6-4 last 10 (+1.2 margin), aligned public/money 61%/65%; sim win prob exceeds implied 53%.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Mets | 58% |
| Win % for Detroit Tigers | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Mets (+1.5) | 68% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Runs | 7.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.5, 10.2] |

💸 Public Bets
Mets 61% / Tigers 39%

💰 Money Distribution
Mets 65% / Tigers 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable; Mets ML steady at -112 to -120 across books, no RLM despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Mets +1.5 (model 68% vs -200 implied 67%); +4% on Mets ML; +3% Under 8.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Pete Alonso (Mets) / Over 1.5 Total Bases / 1.5 at -115 / 72% / Mets offense averaging 4.3 RPG recently, Alonso key power vs Tigers weak pitching; 70% hit rate last 10.
Player Prop #2: Brandon Nimmo (Mets) / Over 0.5 Hits / 0.5 at -140 / 78% / High contact vs Tigers staff, recent form strong in low-total games; defensive matchup favors multi-hit potential.
Player Prop #3: Riley Greene (Tigers) / Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI / 1.5 at -120 / 65% / Tigers low offense (avg 1-3 RPG recent), Mets pitching holds opponents to 3.1; usage limited by injuries.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Mets ML and spread, supported by home form and simulation edges; no justification to fade as EV confirms value. Game projects low-scoring due to Mets’ strong defensive metrics (3.1 allowed) and Tigers’ offensive woes amid injuries. Optimal play follows market consensus on Mets side.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Mets — sim and metrics project 58% win probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis

Strongest Bet
– Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 Hits — Features a dominant 78% win rate fueled by high contact rates against a struggling Tigers rotation.