NBA

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

League: NBA | Game Time: 8:30 PM ET • 7:30 PM CT • 6:30 PM MT • 5:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-05-22 05:03 PM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 San Antonio Spurs -1.5 (-110) / 58% / Spurs recent scoring margin of +13.5 and 7-3 form edge the spread against OKC despite close recent head-to-head results.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over 217.5 (-114) / 61% / Recent Spurs games average 223+ total points with high offensive efficiency and public/money alignment on the Over supports elevated scoring.
💰 Best Bet #3 San Antonio Spurs (-124) / 57% / Home ML aligns with 59% money share and positive EV from 13.5 average margin in current season span.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 54% |
| Win % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 46% |
| Spread Cover % for San Antonio Spurs | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 58% / Under: 42% |
| Average Total Points | 225 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4, 18] |

💸 Public Bets
Spurs 58% / Thunder 42%
💰 Money Distribution
Spurs 63% / Thunder 37%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Spread held near -1.5 with modest movement despite heavy public lean toward home.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Spurs spread from money alignment and recent margin data.

Top 3 Player Props – San Antonio Spurs
– De’Aaron Fox Over 22.5 points (-110) / 67% / Strong usage in recent high-scoring outputs averaging 118+ team points supports elevated scoring volume.
– Keldon Johnson Over 5.5 rebounds (-115) / 64% / Consistent rebounding rate against Thunder frontcourt in current season form.
– Harrison Barnes Over 14.5 points (-108) / 62% / Efficient scoring in 7-3 recent span with favorable matchup data.

Top 3 Player Props – Oklahoma City Thunder
– Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 points (-112) / 66% / High usage and efficiency in recent road games averaging 116+ team points.
– Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds (-110) / 63% / Strong rebounding role in Thunder recent totals and defensive metrics.
– Isaiah Joe Over 2.5 three-pointers (-105) / 61% / Consistent perimeter volume from recent form and spacing role.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money both align on Spurs side with solid convergence on the Over total. Recent form and scoring margins justify following the data rather than fading. Game outlook favors moderate-to-high scoring based on offensive outputs from both sides.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with San Antonio Spurs.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis

Strongest Bet
– De’Aaron Fox Over 22.5 points (-110) — Strong usage in recent high-scoring team outputs supports elevated scoring volume.