MLB
New York Yankees vs 
Tampa Bay Rays
League: MLB | Game Time: 1:35 PM ET • 12:35 PM CT • 11:35 AM MT • 10:35 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-05-23 07:09 AM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 Yankees -1.5 at +150 / 58% / Yankees bullpen depth and Rays offensive struggles against lefties create value on the favorite despite public money, with +150 offering positive EV on the run-line.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 7 at -105 / 62% / Combined pitching injuries on both sides and low-scoring recent form point to a pitcher’s duel below the total, with under money at 61% confirming the lean.
💰 Best Bet #3 Yankees -144 / 61% / Stronger overall roster talent and home advantage outweigh recent skid when accounting for Rays’ depleted rotation.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 59% |
| Win % for Tampa Bay Rays | 41% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41% / Under: 59% |
| Average Total Runs | 6.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1, +4] |
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 66% / Rays 34%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 70% / Rays 30%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned on Yankees
📉 Line Movement
Yankees spread held steady at -1.5 with heavy money support despite recent losses
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Yankees ML +1.8% EV; Under +3.1% EV; Rays +1.5 offers marginal contrarian value only at best available pricing
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases at -115 / 64% — Elite matchup against Rays depleted staff and consistent extra-base production in current season form.
– Player Prop #2: Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 runs at +105 / 61% — High on-base rate and Yankees leadoff role create frequent scoring opportunities.
– Player Prop #3: Tampa Bay Rays team Over 3.5 hits at -130 / 58% — Even with injuries, contact-heavy approach keeps hit totals stable against Yankees pitching.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and sharp money align heavily behind the Yankees across spread and moneyline, supported by superior talent despite injuries. The under receives the strongest data backing from pitching attrition and low recent totals. Fade the public only on the total where sharp action diverges.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Yankees moneyline and spread — highest mathematical probability of winning.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Gemini recommends passing on this game (analysis was unclear)