MLB
Toronto Blue Jays vs 
New York Mets
League: MLB | Game Time: 7:07 PM ET • 6:07 PM CT • 5:07 PM MT • 4:07 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-06-28 05:08 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 New York Mets / -1.5 / -1.5 at +168 / 61% / Mets show better recent road results and exploit Toronto’s 3-7 home stretch with multiple key starters sidelined.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 8.5 / 8.5 at -109 / 58% / Both clubs average under 4.5 runs per game in latest outings; Toronto’s 4.1 runs scored per game and elevated bullpen absences point to suppressed scoring.
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Mets / Moneyline / +100 / 57% / Public split near 50/50 on moneyline while sharp money tilts slightly toward Mets; positive EV at even money versus Toronto’s recent 3-7 skid.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toronto Blue Jays | 47% |
| Win % for New York Mets | 53% |
| Spread Cover % for Toronto Blue Jays | 46% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 56% |
| Average Total Runs | 8.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 4] |
💸 Public Bets
Toronto Blue Jays 53% / New York Mets 47%
💰 Money Distribution
Toronto Blue Jays 57% / New York Mets 43%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Mets +1.5 money moved from -200 to -205 while public stayed near even on the moneyline.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Mets -1.5 carries +4% EV; Under 8.5 carries +3% EV based on current-season run rates and injury-adjusted lineups.
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: New York Mets total runs Under 4.5 at -110 / 62% / Toronto allows 6.0 runs per game in current 2026 season and has lost seven of ten with multiple rotation arms on IL.
– Player Prop #2: Toronto Blue Jays total hits Under 8.5 at -105 / 59% / Blue Jays averaging 7.8 hits per game during 3-7 stretch against quality pitching.
– Player Prop #3: New York Mets total runs Over 4.0 at -115 / 57% / Mets have posted 5+ runs in four of last six road contests while Toronto bullpen ERA sits elevated with multiple 60-day IL arms.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public money slightly favors Toronto on the moneyline while sharp indicators and line movement support the Mets side. The data favors fading the slight public lean on the total toward Under given both offenses’ current-season averages and Toronto’s injury-depleted rotation. Overall scoring outlook remains below the posted total.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on New York Mets -1.5.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Gemini recommends passing on this game