MLB

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

League: MLB | Game Time: 1:35 PM ET • 12:35 PM CT • 11:35 AM MT • 10:35 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-07-01 07:25 AM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees / -1.5 / +136 / 61% / Yankees cover despite key injuries as Tigers bullpen remains depleted and recent head-to-head shows Yankees still generating enough offense at home to win by multiple runs.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 9.5 / -110 / 58% / Both lineups missing multiple high-OPS bats and recent form shows suppressed scoring; offensive and defensive metrics converge on a low-total environment.
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Yankees / Moneyline / -142 / 64% / Market overvalues Tigers despite heavy public money on Yankees; Yankees retain home edge and pitching depth advantage even with listed absences.

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Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 59% |
| Win % for Detroit Tigers | 41% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 56% |
| Average Total Runs | 8.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +4] |

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Public Bets
Yankees 66% / Tigers 34%
Money Distribution
Yankees 70% / Tigers 30%
Market Alignment
Aligned
Line Movement
Yankees -1.5 held steady at +136 with minimal movement despite heavy public and money support.
Mathematical Edge (EV)
Yankees ML carries +3.8% EV; Under 9.5 carries +2.9% EV based on current-season offensive suppression.

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Top 3 Player Props – New York Yankees
Player Prop #1: Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 total bases / -115 / 62% / Severely limited recent production and missing power bats reduce extra-base opportunities.
Player Prop #2: Aaron Judge Under 0.5 hits / +105 / 59% / Listed injury status and recent form show sharply reduced contact rate.
Player Prop #3: Giancarlo Stanton Under 1.5 total bases / -110 / 57% / Injury absence combined with Tigers pitching metrics limits power output.

Top 3 Player Props – Detroit Tigers
Player Prop #1: Javier Báez Under 1.5 total bases / -120 / 61% / 60-day IL status eliminates at-bats entirely.
Player Prop #2: Parker Meadows Under 0.5 hits / +110 / 58% / Injury list status and recent form indicate minimal offensive involvement.
Player Prop #3: Reese Olson Under 4.5 strikeouts / -105 / 55% / Bullpen and rotation depth issues cap innings and strikeout upside.

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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align strongly on the Yankees, yet the market has not fully adjusted for the extensive injury list on both sides. The data supports following the Yankees on the moneyline and spread while taking the Under on the total, as offensive metrics from the current season point to a lower-scoring outcome.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Yankees on the moneyline and spread.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis

Strongest Bet
– Riley Greene Over 0.5 hits (+110) — He boasts a strong recent contact rate against right-handed pitching while the Yankees are missing their