Philadelphia Union vs 
New York Red Bulls
League: MLS | Game Time: 7:30 PM ET • 6:30 PM CT • 5:30 PM MT • 4:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-07-16 07:20 AM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 Philadelphia Union -0.75 at -112 / 57% / Home side shows slight money edge and spread alignment in provided splits with home favored at -0.75 line.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 3.5 at -118 / 54% / Total line leans under per public money distribution at 56% and limited offensive data indicating controlled scoring pace.
💰 Best Bet #3 Philadelphia Union ML at -150 / 58% / Strongest moneyline convergence with 63% money on home side supporting positive EV at current odds.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia Union | 52% |
| Win % for New York Red Bulls | 28% |
| Draw % | 20% |
| Spread Cover % for Philadelphia Union | 51% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Goals | 3.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, 1.8] |
💸 Public Bets
Philadelphia Union 59% / New York Red Bulls 41%
💰 Money Distribution
Philadelphia Union 63% / New York Red Bulls 37%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Home spread held at -0.75 with money favoring Philadelphia Union despite near-even bet splits.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Philadelphia Union ML and spread from moneyline alignment and home pricing.
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: A. Bedoya Over 0.5 shots on target / +110 / 61% / Home midfield usage supports consistent shot attempts against away defensive structure.
– Player Prop #2: E. Choupo-Moting Under 0.5 goals / -120 / 58% / Away striker faces strong home backline with limited recent scoring volume.
– Player Prop #3: J. McCarthy Over 2.5 tackles / -105 / 55% / Defensive role projects high involvement in midfield duels.
Top 3 Player Props – Philadelphia Union
– A. Bedoya Over 32.5 passes / -115 / 60% / Central positioning projects steady volume in build-up play.
– N. Harriel Over 1.5 tackles / +105 / 57% / Fullback role against away wingers supports tackle totals.
– D. Jean-Jacques Over 0.5 shots / -110 / 54% / Midfield progression creates shooting opportunities.
Top 3 Player Props – New York Red Bulls
– E. Horvath Under 3.5 saves / -130 / 59% / Home attack efficiency limits high shot volume on goal.
– C. Cowell Over 1.5 shots / +100 / 56% / Wing play generates consistent attempts in transition.
– J. Hall Over 0.5 shots on target / -105 / 53% / Forward positioning creates quality chances.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public money and bet splits align on Philadelphia Union across spread and moneyline. The data supports following the market on the home side with positive EV at -0.75 and -150. Total projects slightly under given average goal expectation around 3.1.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Philadelphia Union -0.75 and ML.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– Alejandro Bedoya Over 0.5 shots on target (+105) — A central midfield role and recent roster inclusion support steady involvement in build-up play