MLB
New York Mets vs 
Los Angeles Dodgers
League: MLB | Game Time: 7:10 PM ET • 6:10 PM CT • 5:10 PM MT • 4:10 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-07-23 05:11 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+114) / 58% / Dodgers superior offense and 65.7% simulated win rate support covering the run line against Mets pitching
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 9 (-114) / 55% / Simulation projects 9.1 average total with only 45% chance of clearing the number
💰 Best Bet #3 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-148) / 62% / 65.7% simulated win probability and superior recent form create positive EV at current odds
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Mets | 34.3% |
| Win % for Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Los Angeles Dodgers | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Runs | 9.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 6] |
🏈 Matchup: New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers on 2026-07-24
💸 Public Bets
Mets 40% / Dodgers 60%
💰 Money Distribution
Mets 36% / Dodgers 64%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent on spread; aligned on Dodgers moneyline
📉 Line Movement
Dodgers -1.5 held steady despite heavy public money on the favorite
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Dodgers -1.5 offers +3% edge; Under 9 offers +2% edge
Top 3 Player Props – New York Mets
Player Prop #1: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 RBI (+105) / 61% / Recent form and Dodgers bullpen vulnerabilities support extra-base opportunities
Player Prop #2: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (-110) / 58% / Consistent contact rate against right-handed pitching
Player Prop #3: Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 runs scored (+120) / 54% / Mets offensive struggles in recent road games limit scoring chances
Top 3 Player Props – Los Angeles Dodgers
Player Prop #1: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases (-130) / 63% / Elite matchup history and Mets pitching staff allowing extra bases
Player Prop #2: Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBI (-105) / 59% / Strong RISP performance and Mets bullpen allowing late runs
Player Prop #3: Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 hits/runs/RBI combined (+110) / 52% / Pitching matchup and recent variance support modest output
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and sharp money align on the Dodgers side while line movement remains stable. The simulation edge favors Los Angeles both straight up and on the run line. Offense/defense data points to a moderate scoring environment slightly below the total.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 RBI (-110) — High contact rates and vulnerable Dodgers bullpen usage create prime run-producing