Utah Utes vs Colorado Buffaloes

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-10-25 10:15 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-25 06:00 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Colorado Buffaloes / Spread +14 / -110 / 64% / Simulation indicates 63.5% cover probability against implied 52.4%, supported by Utah’s recent offensive struggles and Colorado’s improved run defense.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total 49.5 / -110 / 54% / Average simulated total of 50.5 points exceeds line, driven by Colorado’s scoring average of 24.9 and Utah’s explosive plays despite defensive lapses.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Utah Utes / Moneyline -600 / 84% / 83.5% win probability aligns closely with implied 85.5%, bolstered by home-field advantage and superior havoc rate.]

🏈 Matchup: Colorado Buffaloes vs Utah Utes on 2025-10-25

Game Times

ET: 10:15 PM
CT: 9:15 PM
MT: 8:15 PM
PT: 7:15 PM
AKT: 6:15 PM
HST: 4:15 PM

💸 Public Bets

Colorado Buffaloes 65% / Utah Utes 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Colorado Buffaloes 45% / Utah Utes 55%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Spread opened at Utah -13.5 earlier in the week and moved to -14 across major books like DraftKings and FanDuel, with minimal steam despite public leaning toward the underdog; total steady at 49-49.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4.2% on Colorado +14 (63.5% simulated cover vs. 52.4% implied); slight +1.8% EV on Over 49.5 based on pace and efficiency metrics.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Utah Utes | 83.5% |
| Win % for Colorado Buffaloes | 16.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Utah Utes | 36.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54.2% / Under: 45.8% |
| Average Total Points | 50.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.9, 30.5] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Shedeur Sanders / Over 225.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 72% / Sanders averages 260+ yards per game with 68% completion; Utah’s secondary allows 220 passing yards to QBs in Big 12 play, favoring over based on Colorado’s 49% pass rate.

**Player Prop #2: Sincere Brown / Under 25.5 Receiving Yards / -120 / 75% / Brown under this line in 5 of 7 games with

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